Paper 6

Weaver and Bayesian Wisdom

Long-horizon thinking and evidence

Authors
Zachariah Roydel Robertson
Date
2026-10-11
License
License not stated

Abstract

Graham Weaver, a lecturer at Stanford Graduate School of Business and founder of Alpine Investors, argues for deliberate long-horizon decision-making grounded in Bayesian reasoning: make bold bets on what you believe matters, then update your beliefs as evidence arrives. This note traces the lineage — da Vinci, Bayes, Faraday, Maxwell, Gibbs, Pigou, Coase, Kahneman, Pearl, Taleb, Robbins, Weaver — to one core thread: the world is knowable through observation, uncertainty is quantifiable, and the best decisions integrate theory with evidence over time.

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